Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
